Wednesday, May 21, 2008

The long reliever question

Do we really need one?

A game like yesterday's would say so. 5 innings out of a long man would have gone a long way toward preserving our bullpen. Instead, 5 relievers were used and some of them are unavailable for today's game.

But realistically, how often does a game like that happen? Starters don't get bounced in the early innings on a regular basis. But a long-man can be used when there is a large lead or deficit, and preserve some of the more important relivers' stamina. He can always be used as a spot starter, if the projected starter is a late scratch or in the event of a double-header. I have always been a fan of the versatile long reliever, and I think the Yankees' current approach (throwing Ohlendorf and Hawkins out there for as many innings as possible) is flawed.

So, how do the Yankees go about getting a long reliever in their bullpen?

The most obvious candidates are Dan Giese, who has been a revelation in the AAA rotation filling in for the injured Alan Horne; Jeff Karstens, who pitched effectively in his first start off the DL; and Darrell Rasner, who is starting tonight and is an important member for the Yankees' rotation. Jason Jones, who has experience out of the bullpen, has an outside shot (but is doing too well in the AA rotation to be delegated to a bullpen role)

Pitchers like Steve White, Chase Wright, and Jeff Marquez are considered rotation candidates at this point, and a role in the bullpen is perceived as a waste of talent and potential (despite the fact that they lack the ceilings of pitchers like Alan Horne or Dan McCutchen).

In order of most likely to be called up:
1. Jeff Karstens (40-man)
2. Darrell Rasner* (MLB)
3. Dan Giese
4. Steve White (40-man)
5. Jeff Marquez (40-man)
6. Chase Wright (40-man)
7. Kei Igawa (40-man)
8. Dan McCutchen
9. Jason Jones
10. Alan Horne (coming off the DL soon)

This is assuming none of these pitchers are converted to a short relief role, a la Joba Chamberlain or Ross Ohlendorf. They would simply do what they do now, only out of the bullpen. Note that here is a dramatic dropoff in "call-up likelihood" after number 3, and only if those first 3 are injured would numbers 4 to 10 see time as the long man this season.

* - Rasner can be swapped with Joba Chamberlain when the time comes, but that assumes that Ian Kennedy can improve his game. Rasner is, in my opinion, an ideal long reliever and the best man for the job. But he wouldn't leave the rotation until sometime in July. So for now, I'm pulling for a Dan Giese callup. He deserves it for all the work he's done in Scranton. The Yankees can easily designate Chris Stewart for assignment to make room on the 40-man, then send down Jose Veras (who has by no means pitched his way out of the bullpen, but would be the victim of a numbers game). I wouldn't mind seeing Karstens again, but Dan Giese deserves it.

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