Friday, May 23, 2008

Life after Joba: So far, so good

The bullpen fired 3 scoreless innings in a 1-1 game against Baltimore last night. By now, you know how it ended: the single, the strikeout, the "strikeout", the toss, the walk, the single, the game. The excitement of the bottom of the 9th overshadowed the performance by the bullpen...I would just like to say, that was a pretty gutsy move putting in Jose Veras in the 7th. Yankees brass have generally liked his arm, and the fact that he pitched in a tie game in such an important inning cemented that fact.

But more importantly, in an attempt to make all of the doubters in Yankees stadium eat crow, Kyle Farnsworth blazed through 3 batters, recording a strikeout and throwing only 7 pitches. The fans that normally roll their eyes when he enters a game, and subsequently boo his every pitch out of the zone, didn't even have a chance to buy a bag of peanuts before Kyle ended the inning. That's the Kyle Farnsworth we were expecting to get after 2005.

Kyle is our 8th inning man. Girardi has said that Farnsworth will get an "extended look", for sure. Obviously we knew that he was going to have the inside track. But there's no doubt that Girardi's mind was already set. Unless he pitches his way out of there, Farns isn't losing that spot simply because another reliever is doing well. Veras, Ohlendorf, Ramirez, Hawkins, Cox, and Melancon can battle all they want for the 7th inning, but the 8th inning is already set.

Thursday, May 22, 2008

GAMEDAY: Orioles (24-21) at Yankees (21-25)

Available: Mo, Farnsworth, Hawkins, Ramirez
Likely: Veras
Maybe: Ohlendorf
Unavailable: Joba

It has begun! Joba is on his way out, and 8th inning auditions will now be taking place (see previous post). For the record, Hawkins is available because he is appealing his suspension, and will likely serve it the day after his next appearance. I love how they time these things!

Blog construction update:

I edited the Comments so that anybody can comment, not just registered users. Considering this blog is brand-new, I'm better off NOT being picky about who comments or not. This is probably my first mistake of many, and I'm open to suggestions as to how I can make this blog better.

"The process has started [now shut the fuck up]"

...because we know that's what Girardi really wanted to say.

Joba threw 35 pitches last night, mixed in his changeup, and finished the game in an 8-0 victory over the O's. Of course, the initial question was "Why?" but Girardi enlightened us. Of course, the question now is "Who pitches the 8th inning?"

A quick look through my previous posts shows me stumping for LaTroy Hawkins to get more meaningful innings, because he's been great over the past month and a half. And Kyle Farnsworth, though homer-prone, is still having a good season and is most likely to step back into the role that we brought him in for in the first place.

But let's face it. Most fans don't want to see those guys pitch the 8th. They'd rather see somebody else come up and do a good imitation of Joba Chamberlain. Who is most likely to do it? Well, let's go through the candidates, in order of likeliness:

Edwar Ramirez - In the current bullpen, he has the most potential of anybody. Just in general. His changeup is the best in the Majors, and thanks to some advice from Pedro Martinez, he has resolved to throw more fastballs and even mix in a cutter once in a while. It must be tempting for a pitcher to keep going to his money pitch, and hopefully he heeds Pedro's advice and only uses it when the time is right. Of course, most of us already knew that he should do this, but the important thing is that Edwar knows it!
My only problem with him is his walks, but considering he has never walked too many in the Minors, I'll attribute this to a combination of jitters and trying to be too perfect. The more time he sees out of the bullpen, the more confidence he'll get. Although I must be nitpicking, because a line of 0.00 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and 11 strikeouts in 10 innings is hard to not be happy with.

Ross Ohlendorf - Great stuff, good presence on the mound. I wrote about him at length the other day in the "Fireman" post, so I don't need to repeat myself here. He has the stuff to be an elite setup man, probably a closer on some teams. But he's only been a reliever for less than a year, so we'll have to be patient as he figures himself out. That could be in a couple of weeks, or it could be in a couple of years. We'll just have to wait and see. If it's in a couple of weeks, then Yankees fans should feel very secure about the bullpen going forward.

JB Cox - With all the fanfare surrounding Mark Melancon being "the next Joba", people forgot about our 2nd rounder from the 2005 draft. He has experience in closing, has good mound presence, and features a low-90s fastball and sharp curve. He's in AAA right now and is pitching very well, so he's pretty much just waiting for the Yankees to designate Chris Stewart for assignment and call JB up.

David Robertson - Snuck up through the farm system ever since being drafted in the 17th round of that great 2006 draft. He also throws in the low 90s but uses primarily a 2-seamer with a lot of movement, as opposed to a straighter 4-seamer. He used to employ a slider, but the Yankees had him scrap it and taught him a curveball...the fact that he is now pitching very well in AAA should tell you that it's worked for him. The Yankees will probably let him pitch a while longer in Scranton, but if there's a need for a solid arm in the Majors, look no further than Mr. Robertson.

Of course, you could look further than Mr. Robertson and find the man himself:

Mark Melancon - That's right, the guy most people lauded as the "next Joba" is the last on this little list of 8th-inning replacements. Some of us already know the story: dropped massively in the draft due to injuries, Yankees picked him up in the 9th round of the 2006 draft and paid him supplemental pick dollars to sign. He had Tommy John surgery and is pitching in his first full professional season (after making a few cameos in 2006-2007). He pitched his way up to AA Trenton, and his fastball-curveball combination (noticing a pattern here?) has brought him success since his closing days in Arizona. If he continues to pitch well in Trenton, he could be pushed up to Scranton by June, and after that it's just a matter of time. Depending on how his "competition" is doing, he might see time in the Majors this season, but most likely it won't happen until next year. Still, he's a great pitcher and I look forward to seeing him pitch in New York as soon as possible.

Wednesday, May 21, 2008

GAMEDAY: Orioles (24-20) at Yankees (20-25)

Garrett Olson (3-0) vs. Darrell Rasner (2-0)

Bullpen:

Available: Mo, Joba, Farnsworth
Likely: Hawkins
Maybe: Ramirez, Veras
Unavailable: Ohlendorf

Damn, that got out of hand pretty quickly.

Still, if Rasner puts up 6 or even 5 innings, the bullpen shouldn't be overwhelmed. Innings 7-9 are in very capable hands, and the 5th and 6th can be pieced together from Hawkins (assuming his suspension doesn't begin immediately) and Ramirez. Though I have a feeling that even if he gets bombed, he's going to take one for the team and pitch until he hits the magic number 100.

Chris Britton, WE NEEDZ YOU BACK!!!!!1!!!1!!11

The long reliever question

Do we really need one?

A game like yesterday's would say so. 5 innings out of a long man would have gone a long way toward preserving our bullpen. Instead, 5 relievers were used and some of them are unavailable for today's game.

But realistically, how often does a game like that happen? Starters don't get bounced in the early innings on a regular basis. But a long-man can be used when there is a large lead or deficit, and preserve some of the more important relivers' stamina. He can always be used as a spot starter, if the projected starter is a late scratch or in the event of a double-header. I have always been a fan of the versatile long reliever, and I think the Yankees' current approach (throwing Ohlendorf and Hawkins out there for as many innings as possible) is flawed.

So, how do the Yankees go about getting a long reliever in their bullpen?

The most obvious candidates are Dan Giese, who has been a revelation in the AAA rotation filling in for the injured Alan Horne; Jeff Karstens, who pitched effectively in his first start off the DL; and Darrell Rasner, who is starting tonight and is an important member for the Yankees' rotation. Jason Jones, who has experience out of the bullpen, has an outside shot (but is doing too well in the AA rotation to be delegated to a bullpen role)

Pitchers like Steve White, Chase Wright, and Jeff Marquez are considered rotation candidates at this point, and a role in the bullpen is perceived as a waste of talent and potential (despite the fact that they lack the ceilings of pitchers like Alan Horne or Dan McCutchen).

In order of most likely to be called up:
1. Jeff Karstens (40-man)
2. Darrell Rasner* (MLB)
3. Dan Giese
4. Steve White (40-man)
5. Jeff Marquez (40-man)
6. Chase Wright (40-man)
7. Kei Igawa (40-man)
8. Dan McCutchen
9. Jason Jones
10. Alan Horne (coming off the DL soon)

This is assuming none of these pitchers are converted to a short relief role, a la Joba Chamberlain or Ross Ohlendorf. They would simply do what they do now, only out of the bullpen. Note that here is a dramatic dropoff in "call-up likelihood" after number 3, and only if those first 3 are injured would numbers 4 to 10 see time as the long man this season.

* - Rasner can be swapped with Joba Chamberlain when the time comes, but that assumes that Ian Kennedy can improve his game. Rasner is, in my opinion, an ideal long reliever and the best man for the job. But he wouldn't leave the rotation until sometime in July. So for now, I'm pulling for a Dan Giese callup. He deserves it for all the work he's done in Scranton. The Yankees can easily designate Chris Stewart for assignment to make room on the 40-man, then send down Jose Veras (who has by no means pitched his way out of the bullpen, but would be the victim of a numbers game). I wouldn't mind seeing Karstens again, but Dan Giese deserves it.

Tuesday, May 20, 2008

GAMEDAY: Orioles (23-20) at Yankees (20-24), 7:05pm

Thanks to the off-day, everyone is available out of the bullpen. But because I like to maintain high standards at this blog, I'll post it in the usual format anyway.

Available: Mo, Joba, Farnsworth, Hawkins, Ohlendorf, Ramirez, Veras, Britton*

Verdict: We're in good shape!

* - Britton, of course, is the most likely candidate to be sent down to Scranton when A-Rod is activated off the DL.

Some pre-gameday thoughts

Everyone is available out of the bullpen. So not much to say there!

2 main points I'd like to touch upon though:

1. Ross Ohlendorf is not a fireman......yet
2. Farewell to Chris Britton, Part III?

So...what's the deal with Ohlendorf? The guy can look so dominant at times and hittable at others. He has the stuff to be an elite setup man......power fastball with a lot of movement, hard slider, and an aggressiveness that you look for in a reliever. He just isn't quite there yet, and is still quite raw......but fans should not be discouraged. Ross has been a reliever for less than a year, and he's had to pretty much learn on the job. He will take his lumps, but ultimately, it makes more sense to keep him up in the Majors. He's a better option than anybody in AAA right now.

Of course, the actual point of this mini-profile is that Girardi is looking for a middle-inning fireman. He wants someone who can get a starter out of a jam, then hand the ball off to one of the setup men. For a short time it looked like Ohlendorf would be that person. But after catching a lucky break in Mussina's last start, and of course, the implosion in Chien-Ming Wang's last start, it looks like Girardi might have to look elsewhere for now. I say look no further than LaTroy Hawkins.

Yes, we all love to hate him. But for what? Wearing number 21? Get a life. For his poor performance? Yes? Well, look again. Ever since that 6-run debacle back in early April, Hawkins has a 3.22 ERA and has allowed 11 hits and 7 walks over 17 and 1/3 innings, good for a 1.04 WHIP to go along with 11 strikeouts.

His 6.05 ERA sure isn't pretty, but a quick look beneath the surface shows that LaTroy has been one of our better relievers for the past month and a half. He hasn't pitched in many high-pressure innings (compared to Joba or Farnsworth) in that span, but he has proven that he can get the job done. I say let Ohlendorf figure himself out, and let Hawkins get the ball if the Yankees are in a 6th-inning jam.

One more thing: don't forget about Edwar Ramirez. While he might not be an ideal fireman, he's steadily moving up the bullpen pecking order with scoreless outing after scoreless outing. No runs through 8 and 2/3 innings, a WHIP under 1.00, and 10 strikeouts are extremely good signs. His buddy Jose Veras has been quite good too (1 ER in 5 and 2/3 innings, 4 hits, no BBs, 4 Ks). People talk about the desperate need for bullpen help, yet there are guys dominating right under our noses. We can worry about JB Cox, David Robertson, and Mark Melancon another time.

My second point was the status of Chris Britton. He hasn't embarrassed himself out there (1 ER and 1 hit in 4 and 2/3 innings) by any stretch, but his 4 walks and no strikeouts are a concern. He could be a decent innings-eating reliever on any team, but with 7 good-to-dominant relievers in the Yankees bullpen, it looks like Britton is going to be squeezed out again. A-Rod is coming off the DL, and there really hasn't been a dire need for an extra reliever thanks to Darrell Rasner and a more favorable schedule.

I also don't think Morgan Ensberg is going to be cut just yet. But his time is almost up. Unless Shelley gets demoted again, it really is just a matter of time before Ensberg gets the infamous D.F.A. Due to the combination of A-Rod, Alberto Gonzalez's superior defense (and to this point, offense, sadly enough), and Shelley's monstrous power and familiarity with 1B and RF, he just has no place on this team anymore. He's lucky that Chris Britton is still around, because he's probably next on the list of replaceable Yankees. He's a likeable guy who has made for some entertaining interviews, but performance-wise, the 2005 NL All-Star is a shadow of his former self.

I reserve the right to eat crow if the Yankees decide not to demote Britton after all. But you have to admit that that move makes the most sense.

Monday, May 19, 2008

There's no sugar-coating it.......

The Yankees are flat-out bad.

Everyone knows that they won't stay 4 games under .500 forever. But the way they're playing, the way they look on the field, on the basepaths, on the mound, and in the box.........it's as if the Yankees collectively decided to stop coming to play.

It's easy to point fingers at people who are struggling (Andy Pettitte, Robinson Cano, Melky Cabrera, Johnny Damon), but this really is a collective failure. Look no further than their horrendous numbers with runners in scoring position. If you watch YES daily like I do, you would be reminded of this fact until your ears fall off.

Personally, I'm most disappointed with Morgan Ensberg. I know he hasn't done much since his All-Star season in 2005, but the numbers he has put up have been absolutely pitiful. A .214/.276/.257 line with a grand total of one...that's right, one...extra-base hit, a home run in early April. The guy has no doubles and 20 strikeouts in 70 at-bats. The fact that Jose Molina has 9 doubles in 82 at-bats should make Ensberg embarrassed to consider himself a starting 3rd baseman. Alberto Gonzalez (2 doubles in 38 AB) has gotten the bulk of the playing time at third base ever since Joe Girardi realized that Ensberg can't hit. Considering Gonzalez is your prototypical utility guy - great defense, but any offense should be considered a bonus - Ensberg should, once again, be embarrassed.

A-Rod is coming back on Tuesday, so Ensberg missed his chance to bump up his trade value and perhaps get a shot with some other team looking for a quality bat at the corner. The team needs to cut him loose. The team is far more willing to give a guy like Shelley Duncan, who can crush the ball into left field, a chance to prove himself. We have our utility infielder in Alberto Gonzalez, who has shown that he can hold his own at any infield spot. There simply is no reason to have Ensberg on the team anymore. Of course, I would question his presence on the team in the first place, but that's not the issue here!

Something's got to give. Of course, last year we were down 20-29 before making that improbable run to the playoffs, but we can't rely on a monster season from A-Rod and the best second half in recent memory from Robinson Cano once again. Every member of the team has to pick each other up. Only then will this Yankees team reclaim its rightful place at the top of the AL East.